The direct effects of natural disasters should be classified as short-term effects. They are much easier to measure than the indirect ones. After a disaster, studies are usually carried out to estimate material losses. The estimation of indirect, long-term effects is more complicated. These, in turn, can be measured by analysing changes in, for example, the GDP index, the economic activity index, the real household consumption index, the consumer price index, the share of the affected country in world exports and imports, the exchange rate of the national currency, national stock market indices, the unemployment rate or the number of company bankruptcies in the affected country. However, it is important to bear in mind that the observed changes in all the above indicators will not only be caused by a negative supply shock caused by a natural disaster. The economy is affected by many other factors at the same time and it is difficult to isolate the effect of just one of them. Special macroeconomic models are therefore used to predict and estimate the strength of the long-term effects caused by a natural disaster.
All of the effects mentioned above have a negative impact on the economy, and it cannot be denied that they are the vast majority. However, there are also a few positive indirect effects that can occur. With possible financial help from abroad or by using one's own resources, it is possible to rebuild a damaged region. Rebuilt infrastructure is usually more resistant to further attacks from the elements. In addition, it is possible to modernize it and introduce better technology. Therefore, the effect of reconstruction will be higher productivity in the future, which is undoubtedly a positive effect for the economy.
Results of empirical